Using a quick-and-dirty way of modelling and forecasting the diffusion of Internet in China (mainland), I have come up with a formula that gives the Internet penetration rates of China (mainland only) for the years between 1990 and 2034. So far this formula will produce results with errors within 4%. It also suggests that one of the policy goal of “Broadband China Strategy” (“宽带中国”战略及实施方案) is very likely to be attainable: To reach 85% of 3G-LTE broadband mobile penetration by 2020.
In a nutshell, as democratic and civic practices have the potentials to spread across cultural-political boundaries online, authoritarian techniques and practices can be spread as well. Both methods and theories must be developed to, not only explain the often softer kind of authoritarian techniques (including “guiding public opinion”, see “Guidance of Public Opinion 舆论导向” and “State Media and Public Opinion on the HK Protests”), but also begin to contextualize the Chinese-language Internet (involving Hong Kong, Taiwan and overseas Chinese users) in their centripetal vs centrifugal relationship towards Beijing. After all, one of the major (but untested) assumption underlying the necessity for a party-state for China is that, it would be impossible to maintain an orderly, stable and unified country without Beijing and its current authoritarian techniques and practices.
My DPhil (PhD) thesis contains the following chapters, some of which can be downloaded at the Social Science Research Network (SSRN):
- Chapter 1 Introduction
- Chapter 2 Literature review
- Chapter 3 Theoretical framework and methods used
- Chapter 4 Editorial processes, Internet control, and Internet diffusion
- Chapter 5 Citation and content analysis
- Chapter 6 Reception and use
- Chapter 7 Conclusion
If you are interested in reading the substantial chapters (Chapter 4, Chapter 5, and Chapter 6), please contact me. Also, two additional files contain the remaining parts of the thesis:
After successfully defending my PhD/DPhil and submitting revisions, I am “on the market” for academic or corporate opportunities that have substantial research components. Meanwhile, I will be finishing some publication work (including DPhil thesis and new/old collaboration work) within two or three months and continuing some academic duties using my spare time including this one for the special issue of Policy and Internet.